Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc51d…6506 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$9
other 24% +$1
culture 8% $0
politics 8% $0
economics 8% −$2
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.2% -3.9% 50% 50% -8.5%
≤30d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 15% 8% -11.7%
≤90d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 15% 8% -11.7%
all 43 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -10.4%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage283d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 46¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $17 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $26 +$1 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $58 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $16 −$3 -19%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $31 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $38 −$4 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $35 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 25 $73 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $31 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 19 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $14 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 11 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $11 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 08 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $28 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $28 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $11 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $27 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $27 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $13 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $10 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $26 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $26 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $26 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.04 · official $26.04 (match) · 142 history records