Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc51b…d260 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-4%) realized +$26 · open −$62
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$151
other 10% +$48
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -13.7% -21.9% 52% 44% -11.7%
≤30d 25 -13.7% -21.9% 52% 44% -11.7%
≤90d 25 -13.7% -21.9% 52% 44% -11.7%
all 25 -13.7% -21.9% 52% 44% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 44% -11.7%
10% -29.4% 40% -20.2%
15% -36.2% 24% -27.9%
20% -42.4% 12% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 81¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $47 +$15 +33%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $85 −$83 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $42 +$90 +214%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 −$34 -68%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$3 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $99 +$25 +25%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$29 +41%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $57 +$13 +23%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $44 +$13 +28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $29 +$15 +51%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 +$16 +118%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$14 -51%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$9 -88%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$16 -81%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$20 -64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $110 +$8 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 81¢ $63 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $47 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 19¢ $40 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $25 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 16h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $42 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 13¢ $14 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under $1 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $50 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $50 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $26 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $10 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 19h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 79¢ $99 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 33h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Under 43¢ $70 39h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 39h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $57 40h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Flame Team 59¢ $57 41h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 58¢ $57 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $44 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $44 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $29 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 40¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 79¢ $28 2d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri SELL Lindorfitos 100¢ $28 2d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 72¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 56 history records