Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc51a…7ad9 sports 386 markets active 0h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,973 (-7%) realized −$1,973 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%201W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$195est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$178
14 days+$98
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,717
crypto 1% −$75
other 1% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +34.5% +21.7% 62% 62% +14.9%
≤30d 72 -6.0% -14.9% 50% 49% -15.9%
≤90d 319 -15.7% -23.8% 44% 42% -37.1%
all 384 -2.8% -12.1% 52% 49% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 49% -16.0%
10% -20.5% 46% -24.0%
15% -28.2% 38% -31.4%
20% -35.2% 30% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$65 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,973
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses201 / 183
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions0
Markets (closed)384 / 386
History coverage171d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 384 Trades
no open positions (85 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$59 +116%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $22 +$23 +103%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $56 +$52 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$11 +88%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $58 −$58 -99%
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $19 +$41 +219%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $41 +$111 +272%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $71 +$34 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $68 +$51 +75%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $33 −$33 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $19 +$14 +71%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $70 −$51 -73%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $4 +$2 +42%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $98 +$56 +57%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $70 +$28 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +36%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5 Jun 03 $25 −$25 -98%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $114 +$84 +74%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $106 +$104 +98%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $83 −$83 -99%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $51 +$32 +62%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $161 −$161 -100%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 3.5 May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 2.5 May 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 May 29 $84 −$84 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 29 $71 −$70 -99%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 May 28 $49 +$107 +219%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 2.5 May 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 May 28 $34 +$16 +46%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 14.5 May 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 May 27 $17 +$6 +33%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 May 27 $11 +$6 +52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 27 $5 +$2 +44%
CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5 May 26 $121 −$121 -100%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 May 26 $101 −$100 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 May 26 $89 +$28 +32%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5 May 26 $193 +$190 +98%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5 May 26 $185 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $110 1m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $45 39m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 48m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $108 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $22 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $23 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $56 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $12 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $58 4h
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 4h
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 5h
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 31¢ $18 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 28¢ $34 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $81 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY 30¢ $31 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 99¢ $114 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $14 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $138 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $105 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $41 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $71 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $118 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $27 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $40 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 72¢ $25 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1072 history records