Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc519…5695 other 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,513 (-2%) realized −$2,514 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%30W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,055per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$65
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$55
other 38% +$172
sports 14% −$2,623
culture 4% −$7
world 2% −$38
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -4.7% -13.8% 8% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 71 -19.2% -26.9% 7% 3% -13.4%
all 130 +0.0% -9.5% 23% 10% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 10% -11.2%
10% -18.1% 10% -19.7%
15% -26.1% 10% -27.5%
20% -33.3% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,489) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$37 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized−$2,514
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses30 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,055
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $382 $383 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $590 +$3 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,768 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,796 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $575 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $534 −$1 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $55 +$74 +134%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5,566 −$6 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $274 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $461 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,995 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $419 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,794 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $2,597 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $3,473 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $5,440 −$6 -0%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 08 $1,560 −$1,478 -95%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,381 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,288 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,239 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $1,489 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $1,775 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $3,763 −$4 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,838 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,523 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,233 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $702 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $486 2m
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $487 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $263 2h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $263 5h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $383 46h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $384 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $385 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $386 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $389 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $390 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $382 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $755 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $733 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $734 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $654 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $655 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $526 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $527 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $574 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $575 9d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $631 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $632 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $533 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $534 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 77¢ $55 14d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 42¢ $55 15d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $697 15d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $698 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $548 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.78 · official $382.78 (match) · 393 history records