Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C5 0xc519…eb2b other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$261 (-41%) realized −$300 · open +$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$211per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-99.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	1	-99.8%	-99.8%	0%	0%	-99.8%
all	2	-99.9%	-99.9%	0%	0%	-99.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-99.9%	0%	-99.9%
10%	-99.9%	0%	-99.9%
15%	-99.9%	0%	-99.9%
20%	-99.9%	0%	-99.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$147 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage

Net worth$371

Realized−$300

Unrealized+$39

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage127d

Avg bet$211

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	24¢	$332	$371	+$39 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	May 16	$181	−$180	-100%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol	Feb 21	$114	−$114	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	23¢	$110	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$109	23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$121	4d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	46¢	$68	42d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	46¢	$113	42d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol	BUY Yes	18¢	$114	127d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.36 · official $371.36 (match) · 12 history records