Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc518…2594
weather · 745 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$15,492 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21,209 · open −$1,078
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,476
Realized−$21,209
Unrealized−$1,078
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions488
Markets (closed)220 / 745
History coverage3d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day892.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 488 History 220 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19,642
7 days−$21,209
14 days−$21,209
30 days−$21,209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 98¢ $21 $102 +$81 (+387%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 17¢ 88¢ $16 $86 +$70 (+430%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 90¢ $3 $72 +$69 (+2496%)
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? No 72¢ 88¢ $54 $66 +$12 (+22%)
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 5¢ 93¢ $3 $65 +$62 (+1954%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 34¢ $5 $61 +$56 (+1059%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 14¢ 97¢ $9 $61 +$52 (+580%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Yes 8¢ 100¢ $4 $56 +$51 (+1228%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 10¢ 76¢ $7 $55 +$48 (+660%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 1¢ 79¢ $1 $55 +$54 (+5746%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% or more? No 96¢ 99¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 78¢ $9 $55 +$46 (+524%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 74¢ $15 $54 +$40 (+267%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $5 $50 +$45 (+997%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $5 $50 +$45 (+997%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 6¢ 99¢ $3 $48 +$46 (+1652%)
Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 3¢ 96¢ $1 $48 +$46 (+3325%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 92¢ $10 $46 +$36 (+362%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 50¢ $3 $46 +$43 (+1516%)
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Yes 3¢ 92¢ $2 $46 +$44 (+2633%)
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $6 $45 +$39 (+673%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 81¢ $2 $44 +$42 (+2341%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Yes 4¢ 84¢ $2 $42 +$40 (+2000%)
Will Jerry Demings be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? No 80¢ 99¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $143 −$103 -72%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $219 −$164 -75%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $258 −$163 -63%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $270 −$230 -85%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $265 −$203 -77%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $269 −$229 -85%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $269 −$229 -85%
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $130 −$90 -69%
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $129 −$89 -69%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $160 −$110 -69%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $150 −$88 -59%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $161 −$111 -69%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $109 −$49 -45%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 12 $290 −$234 -81%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $309 −$264 -85%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 12 $318 −$228 -72%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $1,183 −$964 -82%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $1,116 −$1,095 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $108 −$63 -58%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $966 −$945 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $519 −$439 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $148 −$137 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $138 −$98 -71%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $32 −$32 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $89 −$49 -55%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $167 −$37 -22%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $150 −$110 -73%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 12 $211 −$121 -57%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 12 $220 −$50 -23%
Will Kiambo White be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $59 −$51 -86%
Will Ethan Wechtaluk be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $60 −$50 -84%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $51 −$43 -84%
Will Daniel Krakower be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $60 −$50 -84%
Will Alexis Goldstein be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $60 −$50 -84%
Will George Gluck be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $60 −$50 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $163 −$123 -75%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $492 −$490 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $139 −$128 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $139 −$89 -64%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$30 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$30 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$30 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 27% −$6,994
weather 23% −$6,148
other 21% −$3,678
politics 13% −$1,923
economics 4% −$497
culture 4% −$410
sports 3% −$1,408
crypto 2% −$625
world 2% −$272
finance 2% −$332
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $50 4m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $49 4m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $47 6m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $50 6m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $2 6m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 74¢ $37 7m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $14 7m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 75¢ $38 10m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $49 10m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 25¢ $12 10m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $50 32m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $13 32m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 74¢ $38 32m
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $148 40m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $29 40m
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $73 40m
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $15 40m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $24 49m
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $9 49m
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $27 49m
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $23 49m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 30¢ $16 52m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 73¢ $37 54m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 27¢ $14 54m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $50 54m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 27¢ $14 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 73¢ $36 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 73¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-52.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -47.6% -52.6% 5% 5% -76.5%
≤30d 220 -47.6% -52.6% 5% 5% -76.5%
≤90d 220 -47.6% -52.6% 5% 5% -76.5%
all 220 -47.6% -52.6% 5% 5% -76.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover892.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.6% 5% -76.5%
10% ← realistic here -57.1% 5% -78.8%
15% -61.3% 5% -80.8%
20% -65.1% 4% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,476.12 · official $4,560.30 · 3500 history records