Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C5 0xc516…7f3a sports 491 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%254W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$85
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$93
other 16% −$119
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -17.3% -25.2% 67% 67% -15.8%
≤30d 16 -48.9% -53.8% 31% 31% -44.1%
≤90d 303 +3.8% -6.1% 54% 53% -10.9%
all 488 +1.7% -8.0% 52% 51% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 51% -9.8%
10% -16.8% 48% -18.5%
15% -24.8% 42% -26.3%
20% -32.2% 37% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses254 / 234
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions3
Markets (closed)488 / 491
History coverage120d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Under 87¢ 90¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 69¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Under 79¢ 68¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 225 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 +$6 +22%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $20 +$5 +26%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $41 +$44 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $41 −$40 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 04 $20 +$14 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $15 +$13 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $15 +$15 +101%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 23 $30 +$19 +62%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 22 $20 +$8 +42%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 22 $20 +$16 +79%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $72 +$33 +46%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 21 $69 +$73 +105%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $20 +$6 +31%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 13 $50 +$15 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $20 +$15 +76%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5 May 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 09 $40 +$27 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 09 $60 +$14 +23%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $101 +$28 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $50 +$17 +34%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 08 $40 −$40 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $20 +$7 +36%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 07 $20 +$8 +38%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $101 +$28 +27%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 06 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 06 $20 +$25 +124%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 06 $20 +$27 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $45 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $20 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 1h
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) BUY Spurs 17¢ $5 12d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 34¢ $20 12d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 37¢ $20 12d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 40¢ $20 12d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 43¢ $20 12d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 12d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $20 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $41 17d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $20 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $20 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $41 22d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $20 32d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $20 32d
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $15 33d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 49¢ $15 33d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $30 34d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 61¢ $30 35d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Thunder 55¢ $20 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 70¢ $20 36d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $69 37d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $72 37d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Pistons 48¢ $20 43d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 62¢ $20 43d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 76¢ $50 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.55 · official $99.55 (match) · 797 history records