Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc514…e581 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 703d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2,300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,108
7 days−$1,108
14 days−$1,108
30 days−$1,108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$1,143
sports 16% −$4
politics 6% −$5
other 1% +$8
culture 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.8% -24.7% 60% 20% -38.5%
≤30d 5 -16.8% -24.7% 60% 20% -38.5%
≤90d 13 -13.5% -21.7% 62% 15% -35.3%
all 33 -11.1% -19.6% 55% 15% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 15% -27.8%
10% -27.3% 12% -34.7%
15% -34.3% 12% -41.0%
20% -40.7% 12% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$84 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

703d coverage
Net worth$2,300
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage703d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $71 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $2,222 −$1,111 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $2,222 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primar Apr 26 $400 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Apr 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Apr 26 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Apr 26 $2 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Apr 26 $2 $0 +9%
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? Apr 26 $6 +$5 +86%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be b Jul 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Jul 26 $24 $0 +0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Jul 26 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? Jan 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? Jan 18 $3 +$3 +104%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 03 $620 −$30 -5%
Will Trump say "Kamala" 25 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "trans" during Pennsylvania rally on October 9? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Tax" 20 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct Dec 28 $1 +$4 +400%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 F1 season? Dec 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio Dec 28 $14 $0 +0%
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30? Oct 09 $3 $0 +8%
CFB: North Carolina vs. Minnesota Sep 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Shark" in August? Sep 18 $3 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Aug 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Puffer airdrop by September 30? Aug 27 $5 +$4 +89%
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference? Jul 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $70 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 1h
Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primar SELL No 100¢ $400 61d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $3 61d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 61d
Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primar BUY No 100¢ $400 68d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 68d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 99¢ $2 205d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 91¢ $2 205d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 81¢ $2 205d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 92¢ $2 205d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 97¢ $2 205d
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? BUY No 54¢ $6 254d
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $10 335d
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 19¢ $1 335d
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $24 523d
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? BUY No 65¢ $3 539d
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? BUY No 49¢ $3 539d
Southampton wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $999 539d
Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? BUY No 7¢ $7 544d
Southampton wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 544d
Will Trump say "trans" during Pennsylvania rally on October 9? BUY No 9¢ $1 624d
Will Trump say "Kamala" 25 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on BUY No 25¢ $1 624d
Will Trump say "Tax" 20 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct BUY No 20¢ $1 624d
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30? BUY No 93¢ $3 645d
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio BUY No 100¢ $14 667d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,300.42 · official $2,300.42 (match) · 65 history records