Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C5 0xc513…b4f5 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$34 (+8%) realized +$61 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$26
sports 32% +$42
politics 11% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.1% +2.3% 58% 50% +4.1%
≤30d 12 +13.1% +2.3% 58% 50% +4.1%
≤90d 12 +13.1% +2.3% 58% 50% +4.1%
all 12 +13.1% +2.3% 58% 50% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 50% +4.1%
10% -7.5% 50% -5.9%
15% -16.4% 33% -14.9%
20% -24.6% 17% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage52d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 83¢ 38¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$30 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$16 +34%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $44 +$13 +28%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $55 −$6 -11%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$12 -58%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $17 +$14 +79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$5 +36%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$18 -90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 +$16 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 5m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $60 9m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 23m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $47 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $48 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $16 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 5h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $33 12h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $34 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL 53¢ $21 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 30h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY 50¢ $20 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.19 · official $39.46 · 35 history records