Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc513…7829 politics 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$4
politics 36% −$4
sports 11% −$3
economics 3% −$2
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 90 -5.5% -14.5% 6% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage397d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $47 $0 -1%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $46 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $2 $0 -11%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $50 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $155 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $1 $0 -50%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $50 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $1 $0 +9%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $2 $0 -12%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 06 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 03 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $47 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 18d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 40d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 108d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 123d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 127d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 129d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 141d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 143d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 144d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 1¢ $1 145d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 145d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 145d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 146d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 146d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 146d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 146d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 148d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 148d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 150d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $45 151d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $45 152d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 152d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 153d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.27 · official $44.27 (match) · 448 history records