Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc512…7fdf sports 1276 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,532 (-8%) realized −$2,540 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%741W / 530L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$455
14 days−$1,295
30 days−$1,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$875
sports 17% −$473
world 14% −$43
politics 12% −$74
finance 11% −$259
weather 10% −$299
crypto 4% −$99
tech 1% −$17
culture 1% −$13
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -0.9% -10.3% 52% 41% -20.0%
≤30d 470 -6.5% -15.4% 59% 39% -17.6%
≤90d 1271 -7.3% -16.1% 58% 40% -16.2%
all 1271 -7.3% -16.1% 58% 40% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 40% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 31% -24.2%
15% -31.5% 24% -31.5%
20% -38.2% 16% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$2,540
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses741 / 530
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1271 / 1276
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $49 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? Yes 87¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 33¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 17 $115 −$28 -25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $136 −$63 -46%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $14 +$1 +9%
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Jun 17 $26 +$4 +13%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $12 +$3 +29%
Dublin (Doubles): Puttergill/Smith vs Jans/Visker Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $8 +$7 +79%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic Jun 17 $8 +$7 +86%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $8 $0 -3%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$8 +38%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$9 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $193 +$15 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$8 +50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $440 −$11 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $111 −$4 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$18 +153%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$30 +307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 15 $23 +$1 +6%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $16 +$4 +24%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$38 +226%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $351 −$350 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$21 +246%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$19 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$18 +276%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $9 +$11 +119%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $13 +$7 +54%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $23 +$2 +8%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 44¢ $87 48m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 55¢ $58 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 66¢ $33 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 67¢ $34 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 100¢ $15 3h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle SELL Henry Searle 100¢ $30 3h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 88¢ $6 6h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 56¢ $8 6h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 88¢ $7 6h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 88¢ $13 6h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 67¢ $10 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 92¢ $5 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 92¢ $5 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 91¢ $5 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 51¢ $8 6h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 77¢ $12 6h
Dublin (Doubles): Puttergill/Smith vs Jans/Visker BUY Jans/Visker 98¢ $11 6h
Dublin (Doubles): Puttergill/Smith vs Jans/Visker BUY Jans/Visker 98¢ $5 6h
Halle Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers BUY Krawietz/Puetz 99¢ $5 6h
Halle Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers BUY Krawietz/Puetz 99¢ $10 6h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 53¢ $8 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 11h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $34 12h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 21¢ $41 12h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 51¢ $49 18h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 51¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.05 · official $98.46 (match) · 3500 history records