Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc512…a24f crypto 346 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2836 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,641 (+122%) realized +$17,644 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate49%167W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2836.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2836 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 344 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 22% -9.5%
≤30d 344 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 22% -9.5%
≤90d 344 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 22% -9.5%
all 344 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 22% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2836.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 22% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 14% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 9% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$17,644
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses167 / 177
Open positions2
Markets (closed)344 / 346
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2836.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 40¢ 50¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 54¢ 50¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 33¢ 50¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 67¢ 50¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 22 $105 −$174 -166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $172 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $84 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $109 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $164 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $406 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $203 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $118 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $91 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $480 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $249 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $158 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $107 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $61 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $123 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $135 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $245 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $244 −$35 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $99 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $125 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $72 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $60 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $560 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $97 −$50 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $115 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $43 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $62 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $76 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $237 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $75 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $41 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.54 · official $59.54 (match) · 3500 history records