Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C5 0xc511…c8b7 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1,050 (+3%) realized +$1,050 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate83%5W / 1L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$5,440per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-18.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-10.1%	-18.6%	83%	0%	-6.2%
≤30d	6	-10.1%	-18.6%	83%	0%	-6.2%
≤90d	6	-10.1%	-18.6%	83%	0%	-6.2%
all	6	-10.1%	-18.6%	83%	0%	-6.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-18.6%	0%	-6.2%
10% ← realistic here	-26.4%	0%	-15.2%
15%	-33.5%	0%	-23.4%
20%	-40.0%	0%	-30.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$238 vs −$4 · ×57.3 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×286.51 per $1 lost it wins $286.51

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,050

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses5 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage4d

Avg bet$5,440

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$8,005	+$164	+2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$8,017	+$585	+7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$7,810	+$328	+4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$7,802	+$50	+1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	−$4	-81%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,002	+$61	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	99¢	$7,003	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	93¢	$1,002	2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	93¢	$8,017	21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	96¢	$6,809	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	98¢	$1,001	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	100¢	$6,801	3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	98¢	$1,001	4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	94¢	$1,002	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records