Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc50c…a08f other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$101 (+19%) realized +$78 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$85
sports 10% +$21
world 6% −$21
politics 6% −$3
tech 6% +$11
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.1% +20.4% 75% 75% +29.2%
≤30d 5 +71.0% +54.7% 80% 80% +37.3%
≤90d 6 +76.0% +59.2% 83% 83% +38.4%
all 9 +17.3% +6.2% 56% 56% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 56% +18.8%
10% -4.0% 44% +7.5%
15% -13.3% 44% -2.9%
20% -21.8% 33% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)9 / 22
History coverage104d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 33¢ 96¢ $10 $29 +$19 (+193%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 36¢ 78¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+120%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Anduril IPO before 2027? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? May 20 $10 +$22 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 06 $5 +$5 +101%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 28h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 28h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? SELL Yes 68¢ $19 2d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 2d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 92d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 104d
Anduril IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 104d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 104d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 104d
Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 104d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.70 · official $312.70 (match) · 29 history records