Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc50c…fe5d sports 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,938 (+3%) realized +$2,938 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%81W / 68L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$618per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$681est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,348
7 days+$4,000
14 days+$2,919
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$4,511
crypto 20% −$2,379
other 7% +$317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -3.2% -12.4% 59% 59% +0.4%
≤30d 81 -10.6% -19.1% 53% 53% -7.9%
≤90d 114 -1.4% -10.7% 56% 54% -5.9%
all 149 -3.1% -12.4% 54% 51% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 51% -6.2%
10% -20.7% 43% -15.2%
15% -28.4% 36% -23.4%
20% -35.4% 26% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$874) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$373 vs −$409 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,938
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses81 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$681
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage187d
Avg bet$618
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $214 +$114 +53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $374 +$92 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $318 +$106 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $367 +$49 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $308 +$61 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,558 +$1,183 +46%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $1,683 +$876 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $627 −$605 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,400 −$843 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$19 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $998 +$454 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,299 −$1,122 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $156 −$156 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,943 +$4,336 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $230 −$223 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $766 −$725 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,477 −$1,430 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $696 +$779 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $616 −$616 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,240 −$1,408 -63%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $772 +$87 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $188 −$108 -58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,111 +$264 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $463 +$150 +32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $298 +$173 +58%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $809 +$490 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $142 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,500 +$1,092 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $510 +$358 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $308 +$191 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $205 +$104 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $621 +$599 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1,902 −$299 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $86 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,044 −$1,030 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $742 +$298 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $446 +$259 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,099 +$377 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,619 +$479 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $407 −$378 -93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $448 −$444 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $392 +$53 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $385 +$311 +81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2,327 −$92 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,002 +$422 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $332 +$670 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $156 +$177 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $814 −$785 -96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $307 −$256 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $337 −$320 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $328 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $214 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $466 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $374 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $424 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $318 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $416 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $367 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $368 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $308 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,741 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,558 9h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $2,559 10h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $1,683 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $627 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 15¢ $557 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $53 35h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $48 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $1,400 35h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1,404 35h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 68¢ $998 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 13¢ $285 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $156 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 11¢ $156 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 69¢ $1,014 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $7,279 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $2,943 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $228 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $187 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records