Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc50c…3017
crypto · 643 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$416 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$664 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$664
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses314 / 308
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions21
Markets (closed)622 / 643
History coverage51d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 21 History 622 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$240
14 days−$234
30 days−$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 55¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? No 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 56¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 29¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+245%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+89%)
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 68¢ 70¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 42¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+52%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 66¢ 36¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner T1 41¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Top Esports 32¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Yes 61¢ 58¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 69¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 33¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+51%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) SPARTA 31¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 60¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs Vivo Keyd Stars 31¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 13 $379 −$5 -1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,025 +$210 +20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$11 -11%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,016 −$190 -19%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$3 -3%
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S Jun 12 $36 +$12 +33%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 12 $370 −$9 -3%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $725 −$10 -1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,017 −$110 -11%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,041 −$28 -3%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 11 $539 −$10 -2%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $1,005 −$24 -2%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 11 $380 −$17 -4%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 11 $537 −$9 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $232 −$7 -3%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $241 −$8 -3%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $552 −$49 -9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,076 +$84 +8%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $534 −$9 -2%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 10 $607 −$12 -2%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 10 $231 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $853 −$19 -2%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$1 -4%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $561 −$9 -2%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 08 $216 −$2 -1%
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 03 $55 −$1 -3%
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 02 $76 +$14 +18%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Jun 01 $35 −$6 -17%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 01 $6 $0 -4%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $628 −$15 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 29 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $36 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $26 −$3 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $50 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 25 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 24 $376 −$40 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $175 −$26 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 17 $74 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 17 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 17 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 17 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% −$255
crypto 20% −$391
other 9% −$2
politics 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 0% −$6
culture 0% +$14
finance 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 67¢ $3 51m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 33¢ $1 51m
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY Leo Team 69¢ $75 54m
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 31¢ $33 54m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL SPARTA 55¢ $168 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 55¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 55¢ $168 1h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY Leo Team 69¢ $195 1h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 32¢ $90 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 59¢ $80 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL SPARTA 56¢ $206 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 56¢ $209 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $20 4h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $9 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 8h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 74¢ $4 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $725 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 29¢ $296 9h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 71¢ $3 10h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 70¢ $707 10h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 31¢ $310 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 12h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 32¢ $326 13h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $690 13h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $48 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +184.8% +157.7% 13% 10% -11.8%
≤30d 86 +82.7% +65.3% 24% 9% -12.7%
≤90d 622 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 45% -13.0%
all 622 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 45% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 45% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 39% -21.4%
15% -22.5% 28% -29.0%
20% -30.1% 21% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.55 · official $4.75 · 2322 history records