Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

C5 0xc509…f0ee other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$36 (-6%) realized −$35 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit37%portable

Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$78

7 days−$101

14 days−$101

30 days−$70

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)-26.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-44.8%	-50.1%	15%	15%	-31.6%
≤30d	18	-19.1%	-26.8%	33%	28%	-21.7%
≤90d	18	-19.1%	-26.8%	33%	28%	-21.7%
all	18	-19.1%	-26.8%	33%	28%	-21.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.8%	28%	-21.7%
10%	-33.8%	28%	-29.2%
15%	-40.2%	28%	-36.1%
20%	-46.1%	28%	-42.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late -45% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.6 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$28

Realized−$35

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage16d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$29	$28	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 29	$17	−$17	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$89	−$29	-32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$45	−$22	-50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$7	−$4	-50%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Jun 28	$6	−$6	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$35	−$24	-69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$79	+$41	+51%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals	Jun 27	$12	−$6	-45%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 26	$11	−$1	-10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$4	−$4	-100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score	Jun 25	$44	+$29	+66%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$14	−$6	-46%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 25	$52	−$52	-100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$11	−$3	-32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$50	$0	+0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 13	$21	+$17	+80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	+$7	+136%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$19	+$10	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$27	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	18¢	$3	12h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	70¢	$17	19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	21¢	$15	19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	27¢	$21	19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	9¢	$23	19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	16¢	$2	19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	16¢	$42	19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	31¢	$46	19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	42¢	$68	20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	18¢	$68	20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$4	21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	5¢	$4	36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	9¢	$7	36h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	36h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$6	36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	18¢	$7	36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$84	43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$6	2d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	8¢	$7	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$8	2d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	13¢	$11	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	57¢	$10	2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL Yes	16¢	$7	2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL Yes	16¢	$2	2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	16¢	$11	2d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	37¢	$5	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	38¢	$6	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.40 · official $28.40 (match) · 73 history records