trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 50% | 25% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 50% | 17% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 64% | 7% | -9.3% |
| all | 28 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 64% | 4% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 4% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -17.5% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $49 | $49 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 24 | $6 | +$1 | +11% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $83 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | Jun 23 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 26 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 25 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 25 | $96 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 24 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 22 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 21 | $23 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | May 20 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 19 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 24 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 14 | $3 | $0 | -13% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? | Apr 06 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Pope be from South America? | Apr 05 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 27 | $2 | $0 | -7% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? | Mar 23 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? | Mar 20 | $11 | +$1 | +4% |
| Michigan State vs. Maryland | Feb 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February | Feb 26 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| North Carolina Central vs. MD Eastern Shore | Feb 25 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Bellarmine vs. Florida Gulf Coast | Feb 25 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on February 2 | Feb 25 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Feb 25 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |