Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc505…73e5 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$19 (+10%) realized +$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%24W / 18L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$23
other 31% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +14.1% +3.3% 58% 55% -9.2%
≤30d 42 +18.8% +7.5% 57% 55% -1.0%
≤90d 42 +18.8% +7.5% 57% 55% -1.0%
all 42 +18.8% +7.5% 57% 55% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 55% -1.0%
10% -2.8% 52% -10.5%
15% -12.2% 45% -19.1%
20% -20.8% 40% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses24 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage26d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 81¢ 98¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 81¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+23%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+54%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +197%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +37%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -58%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +47%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -53%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +216%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +111%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $2 −$1 -37%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $3 +$2 +63%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $6 +$2 +35%
Georgia vs. Romania: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $4 +$6 +165%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -68%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 02 $3 +$3 +100%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $5 +$6 +113%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $7 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 87¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $6 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $5 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 7h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 28¢ $1 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 8h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $3 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $1 30h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 28¢ $2 30h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 30h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 31h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 33¢ $3 31h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.49 · official $28.49 (match) · 97 history records