Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc502…bb6b
politics · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$30 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage260d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 0 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $36 −$2 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $44 −$5 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 02 $2 $0 +26%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $16 $0 -1%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Oct 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 09 $25 $0 +2%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% −$7
politics 29% $0
other 18% −$5
sports 5% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% −$18
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $25 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $9 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $36 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $22 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $44 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $40 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $19 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $35 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $38 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $44 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $4 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $35 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.2% -11.5% 14% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 10 -1.7% -11.1% 10% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 10 -1.7% -11.1% 10% 0% -11.2%
all 41 -6.2% -15.1% 24% 2% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 2% -12.3%
10% -23.2% 2% -20.7%
15% -30.6% 0% -28.4%
20% -37.4% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records