Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4fe…601f sports 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3387 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$6,513 (-13%) realized −$4,827 · open −$1,686
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%128W / 376L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day3387.0pace
Fees−$641est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$10,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$4,709
other 4% +$302
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3387 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 504 +33.1% +20.4% 25% 23% -13.1%
≤30d 504 +33.1% +20.4% 25% 23% -13.1%
≤90d 504 +33.1% +20.4% 25% 23% -13.1%
all 504 +33.1% +20.4% 25% 23% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3387.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.4% 23% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here +8.9% 20% -21.5%
15% -1.7% 18% -29.0%
20% -11.3% 16% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -53% → late +119% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
29.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$38 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10,282
Realized−$4,827
Unrealized−$1,686
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses128 / 376
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$641
Open positions55
Markets (closed)504 / 115
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$441
Trades / day3387.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 43¢ 74¢ $1,358 $2,328 +$970 (+71%)
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 59¢ 100¢ $1,201 $2,036 +$834 (+69%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner T1 70¢ 100¢ $734 $1,042 +$308 (+42%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 84¢ 86¢ $1,006 $1,038 +$32 (+3%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner T1 54¢ 26¢ $1,901 $926 −$975 (-51%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 54¢ 28¢ $839 $428 −$411 (-49%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 66¢ 68¢ $208 $212 +$5 (+2%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ 74¢ $194 $177 −$17 (-9%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Over 49¢ 74¢ $88 $132 +$44 (+50%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 72¢ $57 $113 +$56 (+99%)
Wimbledon ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Gabriel Diallo Gabriel Diallo 50¢ 50¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Yes 47¢ 65¢ $47 $65 +$18 (+38%)
Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Yes 4¢ 41¢ $6 $61 +$55 (+925%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Yes 47¢ 52¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+10%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 39¢ 40¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+4%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 54¢ 44¢ $59 $48 −$11 (-19%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 40¢ 22¢ $79 $43 −$36 (-46%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 12¢ 14¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom Washington Freedom 27¢ 7¢ $125 $32 −$92 (-74%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 99¢ $18 $28 +$11 (+60%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK Academy 32¢ 50¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+53%)
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-16? No 79¢ 64¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-18%)
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BALU 32¢ 33¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: GV CD San José (-1.5) GV CD San José 24¢ 57¢ $7 $17 +$10 (+136%)
Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-05-22? No 34¢ 80¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+138%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 429 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $421 +$77 +18%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $125 +$30 +24%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $88 +$66 +75%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 29 $43 +$25 +57%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $38 +$29 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $50 +$3 +7%
Set 2 Winner: Marcinko vs Keys Jun 29 $42 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Wingman (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 29 $16 +$17 +106%
Counter-Strike: NEXORA vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 29 $24 −$9 -37%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $0 −$60 -14340%
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Hosoki vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 29 $0 $0 +11%
Algeria vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 +271%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5) Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Kalinina vs Marcinko Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 29 $1 +$12 +2005%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $81 −$78 -96%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 29 $63 −$51 -82%
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 29 $0 +$3 +785%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 29 $149 −$187 -126%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $13 −$12 -86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $8 +$4 +48%
Set 1 Winner: Inglis vs Bronzetti Jun 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5) Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $227 −$227 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $5 +$3 +68%
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-05-23? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Landaluce vs Fritz Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia Jun 29 $18 −$12 -69%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 $0 -8%
ITF Wichita: Dan Martin vs Zsombor Velcz Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Camilla Gennaro vs Anastasia Abbagnato Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $2 +$1 +68%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $197 −$197 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Catarina Melleiro vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano Jun 29 $136 −$136 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Mandegar Farzami vs Lan Mi Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleks Jun 29 $16 −$15 -94%
ITF Monastir: Leonardo Cattaneo vs Jacob Bradshaw Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Criollos de Caguas vs. Indios de Mayaguez Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $2 0m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $15 0m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $42 0m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $4 0m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $13 0m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $59 0m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 26¢ $3 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 27¢ $17 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $7 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $18 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $2 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $7 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $25 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $26 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $2 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $1 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $6 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $29 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $6 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $9 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $16 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $4 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $2 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $10 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $6 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $16 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $15 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 48¢ $36 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 51¢ $18 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $38 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,281.82 · official $10,451.64 · 3500 history records