Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C4 0xc4fd…bf90 crypto 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate67%96W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$4
other 7% −$1
economics 4% +$3
culture 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 13 +1.6% -8.1% 77% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 27 +1.4% -8.2% 81% 4% -9.7%
all 143 +3.5% -6.4% 67% 15% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 15% -9.5%
10% -15.3% 10% -18.2%
15% -23.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses96 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage556d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 93¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 23 $142 −$13 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 21 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 19 $71 +$3 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 16 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $85 −$5 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $82 +$4 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $52 +$12 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $142 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 27? May 28 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 25 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 22 $66 +$4 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 19 $64 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 18 $59 +$5 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 01 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 28 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $44 +$3 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? Apr 12 $53 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? Apr 09 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? Apr 02 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 30 $49 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 27 $151 −$31 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 23-29? Mar 26 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 24 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 March 16-22? Mar 19 $37 +$15 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? Mar 19 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8? Mar 08 $36 −$6 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Mar 08 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 07 $68 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 03 $83 −$15 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $249 −$2 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Feb 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 24 $87 +$3 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Feb 23 $45 −$6 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 19 $85 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 14 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 14 $149 −$66 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 09 $180 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? Feb 03 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February? Feb 02 $115 +$36 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 01 $111 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 25 $214 −$20 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 80¢ $67 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $8 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $68 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $76 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $76 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $74 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $74 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $71 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $9 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $21 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $6 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $46 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $45 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 82¢ $80 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 86¢ $85 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $86 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $82 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 62¢ $59 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $85 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $0 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $28 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $36 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $70 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $72 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.96 · official $8.96 (match) · 462 history records