Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4fc…cbb5 other 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,003 (-1%) realized −$2,004 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%34W / 154L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,389per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$24
14 days−$99
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$109
other 40% −$239
sports 8% −$1,753
economics 3% −$7
culture 2% −$4
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
world 1% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 51 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 116 -1.2% -10.6% 5% 3% -10.4%
all 188 -2.0% -11.4% 18% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 11% -10.2%
10% -19.8% 11% -18.8%
15% -27.6% 7% -26.7%
20% -34.7% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,877) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$20 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized−$2,004
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses34 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)188 / 190
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,389
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $609 $609 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $228 $229 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $396 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,554 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,295 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,894 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $3,165 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $4,926 −$6 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $931 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,390 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,125 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,420 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,829 −$5 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3,360 −$4 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $918 −$2 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $84 +$26 +31%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $991 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $4,238 −$6 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,512 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,190 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5,441 −$6 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $69 −$69 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $638 +$1 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $2,214 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,443 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,848 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $909 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,259 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,115 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,387 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $63 +$50 +79%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,548 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,410 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $61 +$96 +158%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,258 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $609 29m
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $395 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $396 3h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,178 21h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,179 23h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,167 25h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,169 27h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $901 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $902 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,151 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,153 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,128 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $930 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $931 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $868 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $870 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,003 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,004 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $667 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $668 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,100 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $228 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,101 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,418 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,420 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $837.56 · official $837.56 (match) · 687 history records