Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C4 0xc4fb…1dea crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,802per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 98% −$18
crypto 1% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 9 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$18 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage224d
Avg bet$1,802
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 09 $38 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Feb 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 31 $17,735 −$18 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 20 $7 $0 +6%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 20 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $37 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $38 104d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 118d
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? SELL No 100¢ $73 119d
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? BUY No 99¢ $73 129d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $17,717 143d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $17,735 143d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 223d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $8 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.73 · official $42.73 (match) · 19 history records