Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C4 0xc4f8…436c sports 174 markets active 10h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$122 (-2%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate65%113W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$308
7 days−$170
14 days+$34
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$150
crypto 3% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -1.6% -10.9% 64% 62% -17.7%
≤30d 155 -0.8% -10.3% 64% 62% -12.1%
≤90d 165 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 62% -11.1%
all 174 +0.5% -9.1% 65% 62% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 62% -11.6%
10% -17.8% 59% -20.0%
15% -25.7% 44% -27.7%
20% -33.0% 30% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$41 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses113 / 61
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage143d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $33 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $42 −$42 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $36 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $84 −$83 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$16 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$10 +36%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $55 +$28 +51%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $45 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$21 +83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$17 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$23 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $35 +$11 +31%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$11 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$16 +81%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $83 +$27 +33%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $56 +$27 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $56 +$30 +53%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $83 −$83 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $70 +$13 +19%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $56 +$14 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $66 −$66 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $55 +$12 +21%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $44 +$11 +26%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Five Fears (BO1) - North Americ Jun 12 $27 +$17 +64%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $24 +$19 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$13 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 +$12 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$16 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 +$33 +188%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $31 −$11 -36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$15 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$23 +92%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $36 +$14 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $35 +$11 +30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $56 +$29 +52%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $27 +$18 +68%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $22 +$10 +46%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $28 +$20 +73%
LoL: FN Esports vs Frites Esports Club (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stag Jun 08 $30 +$9 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $33 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 53¢ $42 12h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 46¢ $38 13h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $43 17h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 73¢ $37 18h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU 77¢ $84 18h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 70¢ $36 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $51 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $51 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $35 34h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $40 35h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $29 36h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 68¢ $32 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $82 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 65¢ $55 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $45 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $33 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $46 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $24 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 64¢ $31 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $46 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Heretics 100¢ $47 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $37 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 75¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $20 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 75¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $110 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $70 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $83 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 320 history records