Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4f8…97b3 other 564 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,166 (-2%) realized −$1,163 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%256W / 307L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$70
14 days−$89
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$461
sports 10% −$306
world 2% −$145
politics 1% −$25
culture 1% −$237
tech 0% −$25
economics 0% −$36
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -16.2% -24.2% 30% 22% -6.2%
≤30d 67 -31.9% -38.4% 31% 22% -19.6%
≤90d 172 -22.2% -29.6% 38% 31% -15.1%
all 563 -11.0% -19.4% 45% 32% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 32% -11.4%
10% -27.1% 20% -19.9%
15% -34.2% 15% -27.6%
20% -40.6% 10% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$25 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1,163
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses256 / 307
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)563 / 564
History coverage208d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 57¢ 54¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $42 −$31 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $158 −$53 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $131 −$94 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $62 +$57 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$8 +270%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$6 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $19 +$65 +334%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$7 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$6 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $144 −$25 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $15 +$20 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $47 −$15 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $28 −$22 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $53 +$21 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $41 +$18 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $43 −$41 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $50 −$6 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $110 +$23 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $4 +$6 +172%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $33 −$11 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $43 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 17h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 18h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $51 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 35h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $12 35h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $14 40h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 40h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 42h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 42h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $59 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $59 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $74 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $33 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $79 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 4d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $119 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.21 · official $39.21 (match) · 1694 history records