Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4f6…0ee8 sports 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-8%) realized −$44 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$152
other 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -14.1% -22.3% 36% 34% -17.9%
≤30d 67 -14.1% -22.3% 36% 34% -17.9%
≤90d 67 -14.1% -22.3% 36% 34% -17.9%
all 67 -14.1% -22.3% 36% 34% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 34% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 31% -25.8%
15% -36.5% 28% -32.9%
20% -42.7% 28% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 43
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)67 / 72
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 28¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner XLG Gaming 29¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$9 -72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 −$13 -13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $36 −$25 -69%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $80 +$26 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$4 -31%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $15 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$24 +66%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$7 -55%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $91 +$28 +31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$11 -74%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$6 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$20 +100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $41 −$17 -41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$60 +291%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$14 +140%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 65¢ $105 22m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $80 43m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 46¢ $13 44m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 48¢ $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 52¢ $2 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $3 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 52¢ $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 51¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 5¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 11¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 9¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 4¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $3 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 41¢ $3 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 27¢ $10 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 69¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 90¢ $59 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 69¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 70¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.41 (match) · 185 history records