Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc4f4…4ccc other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$881 (-39%) realized −$880 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%37W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$87
14 days−$87
30 days−$794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$785
other 27% −$92
world 13% −$41
crypto 7% −$40
sports 3% −$52
tech 1% +$39
weather 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -57.2% -61.3% 33% 33% -61.3%
≤30d 4 -64.7% -68.1% 25% 25% -84.2%
≤90d 4 -64.7% -68.1% 25% 25% -84.2%
all 95 -10.4% -19.0% 39% 37% -49.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 37% -49.3%
10% -26.7% 36% -54.2%
15% -33.8% 29% -58.6%
20% -40.3% 19% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$23 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$880
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses37 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage244d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $50 −$49 -96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$46 -91%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $811 −$707 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 01 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 01 $3 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $3 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Dec 31 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Dec 30 $3 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Dec 30 $10 −$3 -29%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Dec 30 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $5 +$7 +147%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 29 $3 +$2 +55%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 29 $19 −$3 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Dec 29 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $25 −$24 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 29 $3 +$3 +84%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December? Dec 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? Dec 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 29 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $3 +$5 +146%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $10 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 27 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential elect Dec 26 $10 +$34 +343%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 25 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 25 $7 −$4 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 24 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 23 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 23 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $7 −$4 -52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Dec 21 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 21 $3 +$4 +123%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 21 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 21 $11 −$6 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 21 $7 −$6 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $2 +$5 +238%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? Dec 19 $50 −$25 -49%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $3 +$9 +300%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 5¢ $104 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 35¢ $388 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 36¢ $2 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 44¢ $420 19d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $4 177d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $3 177d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL Yes 15¢ $3 178d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $3 178d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $3 178d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $6 178d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $3 178d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL Yes 5¢ $1 178d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes 9¢ $3 178d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 178d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $5 178d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $2 178d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY Yes 19¢ $1 178d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $3 179d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $5 179d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $7 179d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $5 179d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $5 179d
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $26 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.12 · official $18.12 (match) · 223 history records