Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc4f4…db81 crypto 559 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+2%) realized +$52 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate62%341W / 209L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day46.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$14
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$5
politics 2% +$4
other 1% +$5
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +28.9% +16.6% 76% 65% +10.5%
≤30d 25 +4.3% -5.7% 64% 52% -31.3%
≤90d 550 +2.4% -7.4% 62% 36% -9.1%
all 550 +2.4% -7.4% 62% 36% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 36% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 25% -17.8%
15% -24.3% 21% -25.7%
20% -31.8% 15% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses341 / 209
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)550 / 559
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 56¢ 68¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 89¢ 85¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 34¢ 74¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+116%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 78¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +127%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +260%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +66%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +144%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 06 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 7? May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $5 +$7 +128%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on May 6? May 07 $10 −$4 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 01 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 30 $15 +$2 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 22 $7 +$3 +48%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 22 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on April 17? Apr 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $90 on April 13? Apr 22 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 4h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 84¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $1 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 57¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 81¢ $0 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1 16h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 67¢ $1 18h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 83¢ $1 19h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $1 19h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 72¢ $1 19h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 19h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $1 19h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 68¢ $1 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 61¢ $1 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 23h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 25h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 25h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $1 40h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $1 40h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 40h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 39¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.23 · official $38.23 (match) · 3500 history records