Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4f4…6aba crypto 598 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-2%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate43%258W / 338L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$108
14 days−$170
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$201
other 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -20.2% -27.8% 45% 33% -16.4%
≤30d 477 -12.0% -20.4% 45% 26% -13.4%
≤90d 594 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 26% -13.4%
all 596 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 26% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 26% -13.3%
10% -26.9% 19% -21.6%
15% -34.0% 12% -29.2%
20% -40.5% 8% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses258 / 338
Open positions0
Markets (closed)596 / 598
History coverage124d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 596 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2135 history records