Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4f4…19bb crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-1%) realized +$84 · open −$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day75.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 33% -3.8%
≤30d 21 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 33% -3.8%
≤90d 21 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 33% -3.8%
all 21 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 33% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 33% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 29% -13.0%
15% -35.6% 29% -21.4%
20% -41.9% 19% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$101 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$139
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day75.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $139 $0 −$139 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 30 $495 +$705 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 30 $332 +$468 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 30 $93 −$88 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 30 $275 −$265 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 30 $225 −$25 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 30 $169 +$31 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 30 $46 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 30 $286 +$114 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 30 $277 −$77 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 30 $258 −$248 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 30 $488 +$312 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 30 $221 −$21 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 30 $116 +$84 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $501 −$101 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $426 −$26 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $458 −$441 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $257 −$57 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $9 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $36 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $57 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $79 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $39 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $72 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $71 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $17 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $6 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 141 history records