Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C4 0xc4f3…9cdb sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$653 (+35%) realized +$645 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +107% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +80% what you keep after slip
Net edge+80%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$43
sports 47% +$678
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+87.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +107.3% +87.6% 69% 62% +21.7%
≤30d 13 +107.3% +87.6% 69% 62% +21.7%
≤90d 13 +107.3% +87.6% 69% 62% +21.7%
all 13 +107.3% +87.6% 69% 62% +21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +87.6% 62% +21.7%
10% +69.6% 54% +10.0%
15% +53.2% 46% -0.6%
20% +38.2% 38% -10.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +107% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +216% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$86 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$645
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $52 $60 +$8 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $150 +$4 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $162 +$92 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$109 +107%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $300 +$104 +35%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$13 -83%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $227 +$108 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $334 −$305 -91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$72 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$269 +1310%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$22 -93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $169 +$21 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $179 +$190 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 0m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 10m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 12m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $154 22m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $150 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $211 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $253 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 60¢ $404 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 26¢ $20 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $5 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $51 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 46¢ $20 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $203 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $335 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $227 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.36 · official $60.36 (match) · 49 history records