Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4f1…a3d4 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 22% −$3
politics 22% $0
world 22% −$7
crypto 15% +$1
sports 11% $0
finance 6% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 -3.2% -12.5% 40% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 10 -3.2% -12.5% 40% 0% -11.4%
all 34 -1.6% -11.0% 35% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.6%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage305d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $5 −$1 -13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $31 −$6 -19%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $50 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jan 31 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $35 −$4 -12%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $11 +$1 +4%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Aug 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Aug 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 20 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 19 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $29 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $13 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $21 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $22 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $20 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 2d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $19 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $25 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 47¢ $31 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records