Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc4f1…5190 crypto 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-1%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%50W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$85
other 21% −$2
economics 7% −$1
politics 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -0.0% -9.5% 47% 0% -9.5%
all 94 -2.1% -11.4% 53% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.4%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses50 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage229d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 23 $202 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on May 28? Jun 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 21? May 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? May 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $101 $0 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Apr 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on April 24? Apr 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 21? Apr 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 7? Apr 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? Apr 02 $101 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28? Mar 30 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 26? Mar 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 18? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 13? Mar 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 4? Mar 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? Mar 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 9? Mar 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 04 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $101 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $101 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $101 20d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 20d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $101 26d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 26d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $101 33d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $101 33d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $101 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $101 40d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $100 40d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $101 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $101 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $101 57d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $100 57d
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY No 99¢ $100 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $101 60d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $101 60d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $101 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $101 63d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 63d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $101 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.55 · official $100.55 (match) · 221 history records