Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc4ea…62c5
other · 49 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6,672 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,752 · open −$2,956
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$31,249
Realized−$3,752
Unrealized−$2,956
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions15
Markets (closed)34 / 49
Avg bet$1,119
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 15 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$400
30 days−$2,982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 87¢ 97¢ $10,609 $11,885 +$1,276 (+12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 30¢ 24¢ $7,614 $5,884 −$1,730 (-23%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 48¢ 36¢ $4,777 $3,650 −$1,128 (-24%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 11¢ 10¢ $2,638 $2,381 −$257 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $2,423 $2,163 −$259 (-11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 6¢ 4¢ $2,175 $1,588 −$587 (-27%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 69¢ 81¢ $880 $1,030 +$151 (+17%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 27¢ 23¢ $911 $767 −$144 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 64¢ 81¢ $555 $707 +$152 (+27%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 3¢ 2¢ $600 $400 −$200 (-33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $555 $367 −$188 (-34%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? No 1¢ 1¢ $132 $162 +$30 (+23%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $118 $144 +$26 (+22%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $20 $63 +$43 (+217%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $39 $55 +$16 (+43%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,166 −$400 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,087 +$142 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3,717 −$2,892 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 21 $188 +$75 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 21 $533 +$91 +17%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $1,481 −$1,481 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 18 $691 +$1,531 +222%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Mar 20 $600 −$600 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $970 +$29 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Mar 14 $222 −$61 -28%
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)? Feb 20 $350 −$144 -41%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 20 $1,400 −$783 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 29 $160 +$47 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 29 $200 −$51 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 24 $300 +$17 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 23 $200 +$84 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 23 $200 −$70 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $400 +$64 +16%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 16 $450 −$200 -44%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Jan 07 $222 −$110 -49%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 07 $1,300 −$564 -43%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 07 $200 +$112 +56%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 03 $516 +$49 +10%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 03 $1,804 +$151 +8%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 23 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $414 +$2,945 +711%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 07 $47 +$3 +7%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Nov 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? Nov 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 02 $291 −$291 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 35% −$3,930
other 28% −$6,062
politics 25% +$4,782
world 9% −$1,048
sports 3% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 48m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $1 53m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 55m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $0 55m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $1 57m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $4 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 8¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% -39.8%
≤90d 10 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 40% -40.2%
all 34 -7.5% -16.3% 41% 26% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 26% -26.0%
10% -24.3% 18% -33.1%
15% -31.6% 15% -39.6%
20% -38.3% 9% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,248.94 · official $31,249.29 (match) · 667 history records