Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc4e7…db45 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$220 (+1%) realized +$220 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%52W / 5L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$530per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$11
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$51
finance 15% +$30
politics 13% +$14
economics 8% +$15
tech 6% +$34
other 5% +$70
world 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 15 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 57 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$829) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$22 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$1,128
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses52 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage272d
Avg bet$530
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by July 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $598 $596 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $530 $531 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $596 +$2 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1,124 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 16 $1,118 +$6 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $829 +$15 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $269 +$3 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $210 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 27 $1,052 +$2 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 26 $42 +$3 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $1,052 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $351 +$7 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $693 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? Apr 28 $693 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 25 $724 +$10 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $724 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 30 $349 +$2 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 29 $1,011 +$14 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 25 $322 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5? Mar 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 13 $1,185 +$5 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13? Mar 12 $731 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 11 $450 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 07 $444 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 02 $719 +$10 +1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 08 $1,456 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 31 $537 +$16 +3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Dec 30 $377 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $98 +$21 +22%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 16 $342 +$34 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $325 +$18 +6%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 09 $173 +$29 +17%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Nov 26 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Nov 26 $73 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Nov 23 $71 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 19 $98 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Nov 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 19 $151 +$14 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November? Nov 14 $92 −$33 -36%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 07 $457 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $151 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 01 $464 +$46 +10%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on October 17? Oct 17 $1,081 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on October 17? Oct 16 $713 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on October 15? Oct 16 $1,152 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 14? Oct 15 $1,150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $280 on October 13? Oct 14 $1,149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 12? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $250 on October 12? Oct 13 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $124,000 and $126,000 on October Oct 12 $1,146 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $598 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $598 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $596 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $530 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $1,126 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1,124 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,124 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1,118 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $635 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 100¢ $66 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 100¢ $206 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $210 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 99¢ $210 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $615 30d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 97¢ $215 30d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $269 30d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $1,054 31d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $45 32d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,052 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,053 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,052 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $693 60d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? SELL No 100¢ $213 61d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? SELL No 100¢ $480 61d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $693 63d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $42 63d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $735 63d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $724 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,127.67 · official $1,127.67 (match) · 189 history records