Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc4e5…e072 crypto 12 markets active 5d ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+7%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 137d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 33% -8.7%
≤30d 12 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 33% -8.7%
≤90d 12 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 33% -8.7%
all 12 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 33% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 33% -8.7%
10% -22.4% 25% -17.4%
15% -29.9% 25% -25.4%
20% -36.8% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +90% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage137d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +410%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records