Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc4e4…94a2 crypto 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,771 (+7%) realized +$2,771 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate68%137W / 64L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$191
7 days−$175
14 days−$160
30 days+$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$969
crypto 49% +$1,086
sports 2% −$252
tech 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -14.6% -22.8% 40% 31% -29.6%
≤30d 122 -6.7% -15.6% 48% 35% -3.9%
≤90d 201 -2.9% -12.2% 68% 23% -5.8%
all 201 -2.9% -12.2% 68% 23% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 23% -5.8%
10% -20.6% 21% -14.8%
15% -28.3% 18% -23.0%
20% -35.3% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,771
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses137 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage54d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +117%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +190%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $179 +$2 +1%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$23 -99%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $45 −$44 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$32 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $283 +$89 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $190 +$2 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $57 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $170 15h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 23h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 25h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 31h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 32h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 42h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 42h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $179 3d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 5¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 890 history records