Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4df…adb1 politics 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%9W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$2
crypto 17% −$7
economics 17% −$1
sports 13% −$1
politics 10% −$1
other 5% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 -19.3% -27.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -14.8% -23.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 51 -3.7% -12.9% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses9 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage239d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 29 $299 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 29 $320 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 29 $286 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 29 $106 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 29 $88 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $175 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 29 $752 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 29 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 22? May 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Mar 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Democrats (D) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parlia Mar 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Emma Navarro win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Mar 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Mar 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $566 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 5? Mar 05 $275 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 05 $331 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 202 Mar 01 $6 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $140 in February? Feb 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 21 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $94 $0 -0%
Will Nepali Communist Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of R Feb 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January? Feb 12 $6 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 02 $130 $0 -0%
US strikes Yemen by December 31? Jan 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Jan 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 02 $32 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Jan 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in December 2025? Jan 01 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Best Game You Suck At in the 202 Dec 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Dec 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft reach $638 in November? Dec 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 05 $7 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $298 1h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $319 1h
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $286 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $299 1h
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $286 1h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $320 1h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $105 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $87 1h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $175 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $752 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $123 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $123 2h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $88 2h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $752 2h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $175 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? SELL Yes $0 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 37d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 39d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 39d
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 52d
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 53d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $6 53d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $6 75d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 92d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 92d
Will the Democrats (D) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parlia SELL No 100¢ $5 98d
Will the Democrats (D) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parlia BUY No 100¢ $5 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records