Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:30:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4de…c46b other 190 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%23W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$12
other 22% −$14
politics 22% −$9
world 7% −$3
crypto 7% −$1
economics 6% −$4
culture 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
finance 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 63 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 190 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses23 / 167
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage171d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $46 −$3 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $157 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $296 −$2 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 02 $44 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 02 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 01 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $290 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $51 $0 +1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $274 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 27 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $293 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $736 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $52 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 15 $49 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $355 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 13 $57 $0 +1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $408 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $45 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $45 6h
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 91¢ $42 12d
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 92¢ $45 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 19d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 32d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 32d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $45 44d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $46 44d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $41 57d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $42 57d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 57d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 57d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 57d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 58d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $51 58d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $52 58d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $52 58d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $53 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $62 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $64 58d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $51 58d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $51 59d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $64 59d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $64 59d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $51 59d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $51 59d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 781 history records