Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4da…3b8d world 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%25W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$6
other 21% −$7
politics 18% +$3
sports 14% −$4
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$26
finance 1% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.5% -11.8% 20% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 34 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 88 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 3% -9.8%
all 106 +0.4% -9.2% 24% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.8%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses25 / 81
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage286d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $132 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $131 −$16 -12%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $119 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $126 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $240 −$10 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $282 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $154 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $334 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $14 +$3 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $130 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $117 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $190 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $145 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $160 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $146 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $150 −$5 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $163 +$2 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $147 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $72 +$12 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $136 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $153 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $139 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $146 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $128 +$11 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $141 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $146 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $128 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $139 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $129 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $393 +$1 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $260 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $141 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $260 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $134 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $146 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $269 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $269 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $256 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $272 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $128 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $132 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $132 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $2 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $4 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $6 10h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $120 15h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $120 18h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $90 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $119 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $119 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $109 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $42 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $83 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $106 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $119 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $82 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $58 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $139 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $27 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $120 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $154 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $154 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records