Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc4d6…966b
crypto · 300 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$311 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$287 · open −$64
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$580
Realized+$287
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses144 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)324 / 300
History coverage59d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 9 History 324 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$563
7 days+$564
14 days+$540
30 days+$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $333 $296 −$36 (-11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $156 $150 −$6 (-4%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $67 $56 −$11 (-17%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $17 −$6 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $17 −$6 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 22? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Smith vs. Tu: Match O/U 21.5 Under 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$83 +2198%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +447%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 14? Jun 13 $4 +$12 +289%
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$130 +24928%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Jun 13 $20 −$30 -149%
Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Re Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MIRA-CJL win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber o Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in third place in the first round of th Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 14? Jun 13 $0 +$3 +971%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on April 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 15? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Clo Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$331 +12832%
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$57 +2100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -43%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $304 +$33 +11%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$24 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $92 −$46 -50%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 02 $13 +$9 +64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $14 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 30 $25 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 30 $17 +$16 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 30 $24 −$19 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 30 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$101
crypto 23% −$16
weather 14% −$378
other 8% −$48
politics 4% +$21
finance 3% +$5
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $9 12m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $16 17m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $40 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $8 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $27 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +220.9% +190.3% 28% 25% +107.0%
≤30d 204 +31.3% +18.8% 53% 51% -7.5%
≤90d 324 +34.9% +22.0% 44% 40% -8.0%
all 324 +34.9% +22.0% 44% 40% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.0% 40% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here +10.3% 33% -16.8%
15% -0.3% 24% -24.8%
20% -10.1% 18% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.23 · official $580.24 (match) · 3500 history records