Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc4d5…87cf
other · 19 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$28,215 +37%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26,639 · open −$158
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,890
Realized+$26,639
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses59 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions101
Markets (closed)178 / 19
Avg bet$4,063
Trades / day1790.1
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 101 History 178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26,639
7 days+$26,639
14 days+$26,639
30 days+$26,639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $873 $878 +$5 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $608 $523 −$85 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $426 $428 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 32¢ 29¢ $423 $389 −$34 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $335 $338 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $92 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 85¢ 81¢ $85 $81 −$4 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$2 (-2%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $5 $12 +$6 (+117%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+681136%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No 35¢ 16¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 80¢ 32¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-61%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+605%)
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Yes 3¢ 94¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+3430%)
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 88¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 55¢ 32¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-42%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+162%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+35%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $705 −$705 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$583 +9089%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$392 +17135%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $116 −$151 -130%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$787 +17412%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$369 +2560%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$80 -953%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$80 -953%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $61 −$160 -262%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 12 $332 +$211 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$75 -897%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$69 -849%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$62 -2691%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$32 -1316%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 12 $298 −$322 -108%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$74 -891%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $132 +$5,437 +4131%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$80 -953%
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $68 +$1,399 +2071%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $26 +$82 +317%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$38 -1641%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $31 −$42 -135%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $705 −$705 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$514 +22453%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $57 +$1,245 +2186%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$378 +16530%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $41 +$2,522 +6192%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Cho Eung-chun win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 12 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$134 +730%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$10 -138%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$892 +39000%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$80 -953%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $705 −$705 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$545
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 0m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 0m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $35 0m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $7 0m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $145 2m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $28 2m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $145 4m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $26 7m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $27 12m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $2 12m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $30 15m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $30 15m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 18m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $20 19m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $21 19m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 20m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $25 20m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 21m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 23m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $2 27m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $149 28m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 29m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $143 31m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $31 31m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 32m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $69 33m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $18 33m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 33m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 34m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $46 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+346.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +393.4% +346.4% 32% 30% -6.2%
≤30d 176 +393.4% +346.4% 32% 30% -6.2%
≤90d 176 +393.4% +346.4% 32% 30% -6.2%
all 176 +393.4% +346.4% 32% 30% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1790.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +346.4% 30% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here +303.7% 30% -15.1%
15% +264.7% 30% -23.3%
20% +228.9% 30% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,890.15 · official $2,863.40 (match) · 3500 history records