Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4d1…d725 crypto 58 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-12%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%25W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day153.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -13.5% -21.7% 43% 40% -25.6%
≤30d 58 -13.5% -21.7% 43% 40% -25.6%
≤90d 58 -13.5% -21.7% 43% 40% -25.6%
all 58 -13.5% -21.7% 43% 40% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 40% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 31% -32.7%
15% -36.0% 29% -39.2%
20% -42.3% 26% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses25 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day153.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $36 −$30 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$17 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$7 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$70 +656%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records