Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C4 0xc4cf…5273 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$25 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$311per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$10

7 days+$10

14 days+$10

30 days+$39

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-25.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+4.4%	-5.5%	100%	0%	-5.5%
≤30d	3	+3.4%	-6.4%	67%	0%	-6.6%
≤90d	5	-17.9%	-25.7%	40%	0%	-8.0%
all	5	-17.9%	-25.7%	40%	0%	-8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.7%	0%	-8.0%
10%	-32.9%	0%	-16.8%
15%	-39.3%	0%	-24.9%
20%	-45.3%	0%	-32.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$7 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage

Net worth$241

Realized+$25

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage73d

Avg bet$311

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	No	93¢	94¢	$237	$241	+$4 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026?	Jun 16	$237	+$10	+4%
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)	Jun 01	$476	+$29	+6%
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	May 31	$481	−$1	-0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	Apr 24	$424	$0	+0%
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)	Apr 05	$12	−$12	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	BUY No	93¢	$237	59m
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	95¢	$247	25h
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	91¢	$55	25h
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	91¢	$182	25h
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)	BUY Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC	94¢	$476	17d
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	94¢	$479	17d
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	94¢	$481	17d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	SELL No	95¢	$424	53d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	BUY No	95¢	$424	54d
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)	BUY Athletic Club	3¢	$6	72d
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)	BUY Athletic Club	3¢	$6	72d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.97 · official $240.97 (match) · 12 history records