Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4ce…25b9 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$4
other 22% $0
sports 5% $0
politics 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.7% -12.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 19% 6% -10.4%
≤90d 17 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 6% -10.4%
all 40 -3.0% -12.3% 50% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -9.9%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage473d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $42 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $47 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $49 −$2 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $42 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $18 −$1 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $43 −$3 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $49 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Travis Hunter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 21 $2 $0 +11%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 20 $13 +$1 +4%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 16 $3 −$2 -60%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $0 $0 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 10 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Trump say 'term limit' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-05? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $40 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $2 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $38 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $10 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $40 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $17 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $24 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $39 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $47 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $49 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records