Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4cc…15a7 crypto 345 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$960 (+8%) realized +$960 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%208W / 137L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$100
14 days−$152
30 days+$774
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$772
sports 8% −$26
world 0% −$18
other 0% −$10
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$5
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -22.8% -30.1% 44% 30% -12.2%
≤30d 290 -7.3% -16.1% 60% 46% -3.2%
≤90d 345 -9.3% -18.0% 60% 46% -3.8%
all 345 -9.3% -18.0% 60% 46% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 46% -3.8%
10% -25.8% 30% -13.0%
15% -33.0% 17% -21.4%
20% -39.6% 12% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$960
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses208 / 137
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)345 / 345
History coverage35d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 345 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $108 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$112 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $102 −$19 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$51 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$24 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$79 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$18 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $155 −$82 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $17 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 799 history records