Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4ca…3df3 sports 877 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$388 (+0%) realized −$4,131 · open +$4,519
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%871W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$801per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5,654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 133d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$243
other 21% +$2,754
crypto 14% +$354
finance 8% +$194
culture 8% +$1,233
politics 7% +$1,190
tech 5% +$49
world 3% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -5.5% -14.5% 94% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 145 -2.6% -11.8% 97% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 446 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.6%
all 876 +1.0% -8.6% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,087) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$335 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$5,654
Realized−$4,131
Unrealized+$4,519
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses871 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)876 / 877
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$801
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 876 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Argentina 100¢ 100¢ $1,134 $1,135 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $1,135 +$1,135 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Austria? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $1,131 +$1,131 (+0%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $1,130 +$1,130 (+0%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $1,123 +$1,123 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 18? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1,131 +$1 +0%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 22 $1,131 +$1 +0%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 22 $1,135 +$1 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $1,135 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1,134 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1,135 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1,135 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $146 $0 +0%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,133 +$3 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 21 $90 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,135 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1,135 +$1 +0%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $1,129 +$1 +0%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $1,129 +$1 +0%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,129 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,078 +$52 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,115 +$13 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $1,084 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $434 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,127 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,113 +$4 +0%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ Jun 19 $1,111 +$1 +0%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,087 +$7 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1,093 +$1 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,117 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,125 +$1 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,124 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,120 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,122 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,113 +$10 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,119 +$4 +0%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,123 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,122 +$1 +0%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,123 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $378 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $3 1h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $1,132 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Austria? BUY No 100¢ $1,134 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 100¢ $1,135 5h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY No 100¢ $16 14h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY No 100¢ $1,113 14h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY Egypt 100¢ $1,131 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $1,131 17h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $714 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $416 20h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 100¢ $1,135 20h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $1,134 20h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $135 20h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $999 20h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $1,135 20h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY Belgium 100¢ $1,133 23h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? BUY No 100¢ $146 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1,135 26h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $4 26h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $90 26h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $1,110 26h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 99¢ $18 26h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) BUY Japan 100¢ $1,129 38h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 100¢ $798 2d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 100¢ $331 2d
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,129 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,653.50 · official $5,656.33 (match) · 3500 history records