trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 60¢ | 55¢ | $16,236 | $14,827 | −$1,409 (-9%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 27¢ | 24¢ | $13,800 | $12,729 | −$1,071 (-8%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $3,500 | $3,482 | −$18 (-1%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $1,200 | $1,144 | −$56 (-5%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $1,000 | $866 | −$134 (-13%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1,232 | $843 | −$390 (-32%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $6,028 | $0 | −$6,028 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $1,000 | $0 | −$1,000 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $6,244 | −$6,028 | -96% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $103 | −$100 | -97% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Jun 12 | $1,034 | −$1,000 | -97% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 3 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 15% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 20% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |