Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc4c8…68f0 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,436 (+2%) realized +$1,436 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%62W / 57L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$697per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$286est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$94
14 days+$94
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$3,675
sports 26% −$2,189
crypto 0% −$344
world 0% −$212
politics 0% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.1% 60% 60% +8.1%
≤30d 5 +1.5% -8.1% 60% 60% +8.1%
≤90d 96 -7.9% -16.7% 55% 45% -8.9%
all 119 -10.3% -18.8% 52% 43% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 43% -8.6%
10% -26.6% 29% -17.4%
15% -33.7% 22% -25.3%
20% -40.2% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$796) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$185 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses62 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$286
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage112d
Avg bet$697
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $16 −$16 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $121 +$67 +55%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $127 −$125 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $141 +$107 +76%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $80 +$61 +76%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $68 +$3 +4%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $52 +$16 +30%
Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $33 +$20 +60%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? May 17 $181 −$148 -82%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $151 +$30 +20%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $139 +$12 +9%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $247 +$51 +21%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $222 +$26 +12%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $165 +$56 +34%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $100 +$66 +66%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $465 −$461 -99%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 12 $318 +$147 +46%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $283 +$35 +12%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $242 +$41 +17%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $221 +$78 +35%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $299 −$295 -99%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score May 09 $329 −$108 -33%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $308 −$304 -99%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score May 09 $588 +$50 +8%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $756 −$169 -22%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $668 +$89 +13%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $667 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $600 +$67 +11%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $518 +$82 +16%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? May 05 $519 +$32 +6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $429 +$66 +15%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 03 $312 +$97 +31%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $422 −$177 -42%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $501 +$26 +5%
Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $202 +$90 +44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $294 +$124 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $707 −$472 -67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $6,250 −$2,067 -33%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 01 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1 $0 +15%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $811 −$800 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $406 +$413 +102%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $51 +$35 +68%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $305 +$147 +48%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $61 −$45 -74%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2,840 +$1,006 +35%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2,357 +$486 +21%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $4,383 +$167 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $16 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $187 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $121 16h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $127 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $248 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $141 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $80 28h
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $71 38d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? SELL Yes 95¢ $71 39d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 91¢ $68 39d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 39d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $52 40d
Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $52 40d
Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $33 40d
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? SELL Yes $32 40d
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 43¢ $181 40d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $181 40d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 41d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 91¢ $151 41d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $139 41d
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 95¢ $299 41d
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $247 41d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $247 41d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $222 41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $55 41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $166 41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $165 41d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $165 42d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $100 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records